I'm not a believer in predestination, don't think my life has any particular purpose, don't believe I was intended to be anything in particular, and I don't adhere to the belief that there's a big master plan of some kind. Life is, whether or not we like it, a crap shoot. The world we are born into is one of chance and constant change, and the best we can do is react to what it gives us. That doesn't mean we should do nothing to improve our chances at success and happiness and contentment. What purpose there is in life is made by (you guessed it) us. We are for the most part the architects of our own purpose, and if that's destiny, I can accept that. The key word here is probability. In a word of chance and change, our best bet for success in life is to play the probabilities of what will and won't happen. The most frightening thing we all face is uncertainty, and none of us can predict what will happen in the future with any reasonable expectations of getting it right most of the time.
If you study history, take a close look at what has happened in the past, you can make some predictions as to what will help make your plans work out. If you are a careful observer about what goes on around you, your chances of successful planning are enhanced even more. At my age, after a long life that has involved lots of experiences and a lot of study and learning, I can predict what probably will happen better than most people. I've studied probabilities for a long time, and that has paid off for me in lots of ways. Still, chance and changes I don't foresee often prove me wrong in my predictions. I don't really expect a high average when it comes to correct predictions. I'd settle for a 50/50 success rate. I just try to make sure my rather regular failures with probabilities aren't big enough to bring me down.
My daughter is wanting to move to the small town where I live and has been shopping for a house to buy. They've (her and hubby) have never owned a house, and they're in their early forties. I've owned a few homes over the years, and there's lessons to be learned from ownership. Buying a first home brings one back to reality once the shopping starts, makes you stop to consider things like . . . ah, can I really afford that much house? So, she found a house she loved, and she loved it because it fit her style, etc. I looked at the house, think it's badly overpriced. It's not a house that will be easy to sell, even at a lowered price. It's not a house you'd be able to make any money from resale, or perhaps even get back most of what you put into it. In short, it's a bad buy. The probabilities are all against you. If you yield to a little reason, reality sets in, and you look elsewhere.
So another house with even more space came available, and it's a fixer-upper. It's livable as is, but barely. But the house is 1/3 the cost of the other, in a better location, and it shows the prospects of becoming a very nice home. Lots of work to do, some expense, but it's got promise. And they would like to have an older house they can work on. Again, probabilities come into play. Is the older house that shows promise going to cost a lot to remodel? Probably. Is it going to be an experience with frustration, set- backs, and unexpected things to fix? Probably. Is it going to be fun to work on, and rewarding at the end of the adventure? Probably. Can I get my money back out of it once I remodel? Probably. Will I actually make money? Probably.
There are buys out there where the probabilities are even better. Find a home that's reasonably priced, already updated and move-in ready, in a good location, and a property that's going to increase in value over the years. All the probabilities in your favor line up with a house like this. Will I save money over the long haul paying more money for a house already fixed up? Probably. And you can always improve almost any house. My home isn't old, and I'm never caught up on things that need to be done around here. Never. And I like it that way. I hope to die in this house, unless of course, I come into a big sum of money and can afford to move to a million dollar home in Santa Fe. Will that happen? Uh, not likely. Probabilities? Nearly nil.
Back to the fixer-upper, good buy house. Dealing with probabilities means taking into consideration certain accommodations and even compromises. Like, the house will likely cost more to restore than I would like, and I must keep in check my want list and desire to buy the best. If I spend too much on the remodel, the house probably won't turn out to be financial rewarding. You can tear down probabilities in your favor by making poor decisions. Don't forget your original intent, and make sure your probabilities stay high. I've been there, done that, came out on top most of the time. And I'm playing the probabilities that the same trend continues.
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