Russian political scientist Igor Panarin has predicted the break-up of America into something like six states, or new nations. And he thinks this is coming soon, not in the distant future. He came up with this prophecy some fifteen years ago, but only in the past few years has it drawn international attention. This is due in part to America's enduring political gridlock that is crippling the nation, but it is due more to America's flagging influence in the world. As we weaken at home, we weaken abroad. Some prominent American political scientists are in agreement with Panarin, at least in part. I too am a political scientist, a veteran of 35 years of teaching at the college level . . . and like some others, I think Panarin's prediction has some merit.
Panarin has also predicted that the break-up of the U.S. might solve some problems here, but it could be devastating for Russia. Close economic ties to this country exist not only in Russia but around the world. The housing bubble bursting here in 2007 sent shockwaves around the world, causing similar situations in Europe and elsewhere. We might be weakened some as a nation both here and abroad, but what happens here is going to affect billions of people around the world.
But Panarin is a Russian, not an American, and that puts him at somewhat of a disadvantage in predicting what will happen here. For one thing, he has underestimated American determination and stubbornness. It will take a lot of suffering to break up this nation, and only the most astute of political observers will be able to predict when and where that will happen. Will we have another raging civil war? Not likely. We didn't learn much from the one and only civil war this nation has had, but I think we learned one thing - don't do it again. Foreign observers of the U.S. governmental and political system may fail to understand exactly how our federal system works. Panarin thinks the break-up will start when richer American states start refusing to give up money to the federal government, to big brother. Perhaps what he doesn't understand is that our richer states are more dependent on the union than are the weaker ones.
California, for example, likes to point out that if it were an independent state, a sovereign nation, it would be the 7th largest economy in the world. What Californians probably don't want to point out is that California takes more federal money than any other state. I live in Texas, the second largest state in the union land wise, and the second largest in population, and one of the richest, if not the richest. And you hear a lot of talk here about how well Texas would do as an independent country. What you don't hear about is how dependent Texas is on the federal government. Only California takes more federal funds than does Texas.
Let's take a closer look at Texas and how it would fare as an independent country, or as part of a new nation consisting of several southwestern states. Without federal funds, Texas would be in dire straights. The closing of military establishments here would be devastating to the economy. The closing of federal office buildings where the feds conduct many social programs, like social security and medicare and workman's comp, and all that would shut down and be gone. And who's going to pick up the tab for all that? What will happen to the people dependent on federal aid? We're already the most lawless state in the nation, but pardner, you ain't seen nothing yet until what would come about with the loss of federal funds. We'd be hard pressed to deal with the suffering caused by the break-up of America. And even if Texas went into a confederation or union with other states, they'd be worse off because they'd have to carry the load for states like Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and maybe Arkansas and a few others.
And still, it could work in the long run. It would be very hard at first, but as the new government got underway and started dealing with problems, they'd learn to either sink or swim. The bordering Mexican states would likewise go under, as perhaps would all of Mexico, unless they joined in with this new nation. Through proper management of resources in the area, the oil and gas and agriculture and mining and all that, there'd be room for economic growth . . . but only in time. It would be a very difficult transition, but it could be done. And perhaps the time is coming when there'll be no real choice. I don't think that's going to be soon, but if the current trends continue, it's coming. I'm an old man and probably won't live to see it, and for that, I'm thankful. What I'm not thankful for are the politicians who've almost ruined this great nation. We die from the inside out, and if we have the resolve for it, we will live and prosper from the inside out. We still have options, choices to make, but I'm sure of one thing: It won't be politicians who make them . . . until they are forced to, or are replaced by wiser people.
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